The World Gold Council says its benchmark scenario and market consensus implies
the Fed will hike at least once in 2026, most likely in October, while the Bank
of England, Bank of Japan and ECB are expected to tighten and U.S. Q2 inflation
should peak near 3.9%. Under those assumptions, gold is likely to trade around
$4,100/oz this year with roughly ±5% volatility. Upside would come from
worsening geopolitical or economic conditions or a shift in rate expectations,
though a sustained breakout would likely require a sufficiently strong global
slowdown. Downside risks are a stronger dollar, larger-than-expected rate hikes
and a return to risk-on sentiment; prolonged trading below $4,000/oz could spur
further selling, while declines exceed 10% historically tend to attract
buy-the-dip demand from long-term regional investors.
