Euro-area inflation eased to 2.8% in June, below a Refinitiv survey forecast of
3% and down from 3.2% in May. The decline eases price pressures linked to the
Iran war and is a positive for the ECB as it seeks to curb inflation. The ECB
raised rates 25bp to 2.25% last month — its first hike since 2023 — and June
marked the fourth consecutive month above the ECB's 2% medium-term target. Prior
To the data, swap markets had been pricing another 25bp ECB hike by year-end.
