US Dollar:
1. US Federal Funds Rate futures fell further, suggesting an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate hike in September.
2. Tonight at 9 PM! Fed Chairman Warsh will appear at the Global Central Bank Forum.
Euro:
1. ECB President Lane: The oil price futures curve indicates that oil prices will remain high for the next few years, meaning that economic costs will rise.
2. ECB Governing Council member Sleipön: The decline in energy prices will have an impact on prices. Structural growth data in Europe remains at a fairly low level. Artificial intelligence has an inflationary effect in the short term.
3. ECB Governing Council member Winsch: Another rate hike may be needed, but the reasons are not as strong as before. The ECB's rapid action does not necessarily mean that action will be taken in July.
4. ECB Governing Council member Nagel: Inflation is likely to remain high. It is too early to judge whether to raise rates. The situation in the Middle East remains very uncertain.
5. Due to the decline in oil prices, the French inflation rate fell to its lowest level since March.
6. French Finance Minister: The 2026 French GDP growth forecast is 0.9%, facing downside risks. 7. ECB Governing Council member Dorenz: If current oil prices remain stable, the ECB may wait until September to decide whether further monetary policy adjustments are needed. No significant second-round inflation effects have been observed yet.
8. Sources: The ECB plans to double the minimum reserve requirement ratio for banks to 2% to reduce its own interest expenses.
9. ECB Governing Council member Kazaks: If the situation improves, further interest rate hikes are unlikely. The urgency for consecutive rate hikes has significantly decreased.
10. ECB Governing Council member Demarco: The ECB can wait until the next round of economic forecasts before deciding whether further tightening is needed. The ECB should not rush into the next rate hike after the drop in oil prices.
Pound Sterling:
1. Despite declining mortgage costs, UK house prices remain stagnant.
Yen Yen:
1. Japanese manufacturers' confidence index rose to its highest level since 2018.
2. Japanese manufacturing saw its strongest quarterly performance in over 12 years in June.
3. Bank of Japan Tankan Survey: All Japanese companies expect the average USD/JPY exchange rate to be 152.57 in fiscal year 2026/27. All Japanese companies expect the average EUR/JPY exchange rate to be 175.62 in fiscal year 2026/27.
4. Japan's top foreign exchange official: Japan's foreign exchange market intervention two months ago to support the yen was successful and received support from some US officials.
Other:
1. Switzerland's June KOF Leading Economic Index was 101.2, below the expected 99.1, and the previous value was revised from 98 to 98.6.
2. Central Bank of Turkey: Signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on fintech cooperation.
3. Bank of Korea: Net foreign exchange market intervention transactions in the first quarter were -$13.628 billion, and are projected to be -$22.467 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
4. South Korea's June exports saw the largest year-on-year increase since October 1978, and the June trade surplus reached a record high.
5. Bank of Thailand: Thailand's economic growth is expected to slow.
6. Governor of Sberbank, Russia: Key interest rates need to be lowered.
7. Central Bank of Turkey: Removed the additional lira reserve requirement for foreign currency deposits/participating funds. The reserve requirement ratio for foreign currency deposits/participating funds will be raised from 30% to 32%, applicable to demand deposits and deposits with a maximum term of one month.
8. Thai business groups expect Thailand's exports to grow by 8% to 10% in 2026, and GDP growth to remain at 1.6% to 2.0% in 2026.
9. The People's Bank of China conducted net reverse repos today, withdrawing 1.1625 trillion yuan.
