CITIC Securities says early-May dollar strength and rising rate expectations
corresponding with an acceleration of global K-shaped market divergence, driven by
tightening expectations that damage non-AI demand. The firm judges the K-shaped
split has reached a cyclical extreme; even overseas tech is contracting
internally, and pricing across equities, bonds, commodities and FX already
reflects early recession-trade signals. If tightening materializes, carbon‑based
demand could suffer further; if not, divergence may partially converge. Compared
with volatile offshore markets, China’s A-share market shows greater resilience:
some non-AI sectors have attracted early (left-side) institutional flows and a
few low-valuation pockets have begun to repair, but catalysts are still
required.
