Crédit Agricole CIB said its month‑end pricing model points to moderate dollar
buying ahead of the June 30 fix. The bank noted global equities were broadly
strong in June and the dollar has risen across major currencies this month.
After accounting for equity moves, market‑cap weights and FX performance,
month‑end portfolio rebalancing flows are expected to be modestly USD‑buying
overall, with the strongest buy signal against SEK. It warned qtr‑end and
half‑year flows may also be active, so overlapping flows could raise volatility
and complicate signals, particularly in the last one to two days around the
London fix. Market participants should be cautious of sharp moves lacking
fundamental support.
