CITIC Securities says after large net outflows earlier this year, China bank
A-shares now yield an average static dividend of about 4.3%, with some large
caps above 5% and an average static PB of 0.60x. Looking to 2026-27, the sector
is entering the tail of its risk cycle; the first derivative of ROE has improved
and the firm expects industry ROE to stabilize around 8–9% in 2026–27,
supporting valuation gains. H2 could see a "high-certainty equity asset"
rerating with significant absolute upside. Stock selection favors banks with
strong commercial models, improving ROE prospects, low-valuation large banks set
for multiple recovery, names entering stable growth, and high-quality, defensive
franchises.
