A confidential U.S. intelligence assessment concluded Iran can withstand the
Trump administration’s naval blockade for at least three to four months before
facing more severe economic hardship, while retaining about 70% of its prewar
missile stockpiles and 75% of its mobile launchers, according to people familiar
with the analysis. The assessment contrasts with President Donald Trump’s claims
that Iran’s missile capabilities are “mostly decimated.” The report also found
Tehran has restored many underground facilities and may continue limited oil
exports through storage and overland routes. Danny Citrinowicz of the Institute
for National Security Studies said the blockade “would not force the regime to
bend to Washington’s demands,” adding the conflict could leave Iran “stronger
than before."
