Analysts at TD Securities and Credit Agricole CIB expect the yuan to strengthen
to 6.8 per dollar in the second quarter, defying its typical seasonal decline,
supported by China’s economic recovery and resilience to the Iran war. The
currency, usually pressured by outbound tourism and dividend-related FX demand,
has outperformed in 2026 after rising about 3% in Q1 against peers. Strategists
including Eddie Cheung of Credit Agricole, Wee Khoon Chong of BNY and Alex Loo
of TD Securities cited strong trade performance, a widening surplus,
undervaluation and large oil and FX reserves as key supports, helping position
the yuan as a regional haven despite external shocks.
