NETANYAHU SUMMONS THE LEADERS OF THE GOVERNING COALITION FOR AN URGENT MEETING ON US TALKS WITH IRAN – ASHARQ NEWS CITING ISRAELI MEDIA

Goldman Sachs raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 30%, up 5 percentage points, citing surging oil and gas prices, tighter financial conditions from the Middle East conflict, and fading effects of Trump’s tax law. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius projects unemployment will reach 4.6% by year-end. The bank expects sub-trend GDP growth of 1.25–1.75% in H2 and anticipates Fed rate cuts in September and December. Goldman also raised its oil forecast due to ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Domestic News 1. The second meeting of the "upgraded" China-EU export control dialogue mechanism was held in Beijing. 2. Did small and medium-sized insurance funds reduce their positions, leading to a correction in A-shares? Industry insiders say the impact is limited, with overall buying activity predominating. 3. The government has implemented temporary control measures on refined oil prices: gasoline and diesel prices have actually increased by 1160 yuan and 1115 yuan respectively. 4. Wang Yi met with Powell, the UK Prime Minister's National Security Advisor, and the two sides exchanged views on the situation in Iran and the Ukraine crisis. International News 1. Sources: The Japanese government is considering intervention in oil futures. 2. According to the Financial Times: The US warned the EU that it must reach a trade agreement or risk losing its preferential access to liquefied natural gas. 3. US Energy Secretary Wright: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) began releasing reserves last Friday afternoon, with a release volume of 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day, totaling nearly 300 million barrels. 4. Federal Reserve: ① Goolsby: There may be a need to raise interest rates. ② Milan: If a second round of inflation and wage increases occur, interest rate hikes may be necessary, but it is not currently considered necessary. Four rate cuts are still expected in 2026. 5. Iran Situation: ① Iranian media reported that a US fighter jet was shot down; US Central Command responded: No US fighter jet was shot down by Iran. ② The US aircraft carrier USS Ford arrived in Greece for repairs. ③ Iran denies charging high fees to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. ④ Trump: The US and Iran have had good and productive talks over the past two days, and the Department of Defense has been instructed to postpone any military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. Iranian media denied this, stating that no direct or indirect negotiations have been held with the US. ⑤ Iranian Foreign Ministry: Trump's remarks are aimed at lowering energy prices and buying time for his military plans. ⑥ US media: Trump responded that he was unclear about what the Iranian media was saying, the most recent Iran talks were held last night, and an agreement with Iran could be reached within five days, or even sooner. ⑦ Trump: We have reached 15 agreements with Iran, including that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. The person we are talking to is not Iran's Supreme Leader. We do not want to see any uranium enrichment activities, but we also want the uranium that is already enriched. If the US-Iran dialogue breaks down, bombing operations will continue. ⑧ Israeli media: A source said that the Iranian official negotiating with the US is Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. Iran denies that the Speaker is negotiating with the US. ⑨ US media: Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are helping to relay messages between the US and Iran.