US Dollar:
1. Trump signs bill ending the longest government shutdown in US history.
2. Trump: The government shutdown caused $1.5 trillion in losses; it will take weeks or even months to fully calculate the total impact.
3. White House: October non-farm payroll and inflation data may never be released. September Bureau of Labor Statistics data will be released after the government reopens.
4. US Treasury Secretary hints at a "gradual" change in the structure of Treasury bond issuance.
5. Reuters poll: 84 of 105 economists believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and 52 believe the Fed will lower the federal funds rate to 3.25%-3.50% in the first quarter of 2026. 36 of the 52 economists said US job growth is expected to remain largely unchanged since the government shutdown, while 16 believe it has worsened.
6. Federal Reserve:
① US Supreme Court: Oral arguments will be held on January 21st regarding Trump's request to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook.
② Atlanta Fed President Bostic unexpectedly announced his retirement in February, but reiterated his hawkish stance hours later. The market anticipates a dovish successor under Trump.
③ White House official Hassett: Hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed, but expects only a 25 basis point cut. He would accept the Fed chairmanship if necessary.
④ Williams: The time to restart bond purchases is approaching (SOMA managers share this view), but this is merely a technical measure.
⑤ Collins: The Fed is likely to maintain interest rates at current levels for some time. The labor market has not deteriorated; inflation needs to sustainably return to 2% before a rate cut.
⑥ Milan: Current policy is too tight, and he reiterated his call for a rate cut.
⑦ Waller: The Fed will accelerate the rollout of a risk-customized payment account system.
Euro:
1. ECB: Rising interest rates may exacerbate perceived inequality. Rising key interest rates hit poorer families harder.
2. ECB Governing Council member Koch: Given recent data, a slight improvement in the economic growth outlook is not impossible.
3. ECB Executive Board member Schnabel: Interest rates are in an "absolutely" good position. Inflation risks are slightly skewed upward.
4. Bank of France Governor Villeroy: Given the economy's continued resilience in the face of political turmoil, the Bank of France is likely to raise its economic growth forecasts for this year and next.
Japanese Yen:
1. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo: Long-term interest rates are determined by the market, and their movements reflect market expectations for short-term interest rates and term premiums. Market operations will be conducted if yields rise abnormally rapidly.
2. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki: Japanese government bonds are mainly held by domestic investors, making a Japanese default difficult to foresee.
3. Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae: The government will consider changing the primary balancing target from an annual measurement to a multi-year measurement.
Other:
1. Zambia's central bank lowered its benchmark lending rate to 14.25%.
2. South Africa's finance minister lowered its inflation target to 3%. The South African Reserve Bank: Lowering its CPI target will be accompanied by a downward revision of its CPI forecast.
3. With global capital outflows accelerating, foreign capital inflows into the Indonesian government bond market this year have almost completely reversed.
4. Bank of Canada meeting minutes: Members believed that underlying inflation indicators would provide a signal of overall inflation trends; interest rate policy's ability to help the economy was "nearing its limit."
5. Mexican Central Bank Deputy Governor Mejia: The restrictive monetary policies of the past few years will continue to help reduce inflation.
