FOMC Statement:
1. Interest Rate Decision: A 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75%-4.00% is expected at this meeting, marking the second consecutive rate cut.
2. Voting Ratio: A "three-way split" is expected – a majority of officials are expected to support a 25 basis point rate cut; Governor Milan may continue to support a 50 basis point rate cut; a minority of officials may support maintaining the current rate.
(This is the first meeting since the September 2019 Fed meeting with two opposing opinions.)
3. Balance Sheet Reduction Pace: The Fed will announce the end of balance sheet reduction, or provide clear guidance on ending it (currently, it involves reducing holdings of $5 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBS per month).
4. Other Key Points:
The first two paragraphs may be revised to acknowledge a recovery in economic activity; the statements on employment and inflation will remain largely unchanged, but the phrase "increased somewhat" regarding inflation may be removed; an explanation may be added regarding the data gaps caused by the government shutdown; the wording regarding the balance of risks or forward guidance may remain unchanged.
Powell's Press Conference:
1. Policy Path Guidance: He may describe this rate cut as a risk management measure, avoiding any hints about the policy stance at the December meeting; he may also refer to the September dot plot, implying another rate cut in December.
2. Signal to End Balance Sheet Reduction: He may release a strong signal that balance sheet reduction is about to end, or even announce its end directly.
3. Interpretation of Economic Data: He may explain how decisions were made in the absence of official data during the government shutdown, or mention reliance on high-frequency alternative indicators and business surveys.
4. Inflation Assessment: He may emphasize that core inflation remains above target, but may stress that long-term inflation expectations are stable and recent data is below expectations.
5. Labor Market Assessment: He may emphasize concerns about a cooling labor market, considering it the main reason supporting this rate cut.
