The money market estimates that there is about a 58% probability that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates once in March 2027.

Morgan Stanley: This year's growth prospects (fundamentals) and monetary policy environment are both unfavorable for the Korean won. The won weakened significantly among Asian currencies in the second half of this year, but there is still room for a rebound next year.

1. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of December 8, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (Europe route) was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% compared to the previous period. 2. According to data from the Timber Union, as of December 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.03% week-on-week; radiata pine inventory was 2.4 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.04% week-on-week; and North American timber inventory was 60,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 14.29% week-on-week. 3. According to Mysteel, from December 1 to December 7, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 25.692 million tons, a decrease of 2.148 million tons week-on-week; the total iron ore arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 24.805 million tons, a decrease of 2.188 million tons week-on-week; and the total iron ore arrivals at six northern ports were 12.787 million tons, a decrease of 1.845 million tons week-on-week. 4. According to the General Administration of Customs, China's steel imports in November totaled 496,000 tons, with cumulative imports from January to November reaching 5.541 million tons, a decrease of 10.5% compared to 6.194 million tons in the same period last year. 5. According to the latest data from Glastonbury Ports in Australia, Glastonbury Port's coal exports in November 2025 totaled 5.8985 million tons, a decrease of 1.69% month-on-month and 12.42% year-on-year. 6. According to the General Administration of Customs, China's soybean imports in November totaled 8.107 million tons; cumulative imports from January to November reached 10,379 tons, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year. 7. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year. The U.S. soybean and corn marketing year begins on September 1st. 8. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, net export sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year ended November 6 were 511,000 tons, compared with 1,248,000 tons the previous week; net sales of soybeans for the 2026/2027 marketing year were 4,000 tons, compared with 0 tons the previous week.